资产配置日报：持券待涨-20250422

Market Performance - On April 22, the stock market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3299.76, up by 0.25% [1][2] - The bond market showed increased bullish sentiment, with yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds declining by 1.5 basis points and 2.2 basis points, respectively [2][4] - The commodity market saw gold prices reaching new highs, with New York gold and London gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, while domestic gold rose by 4.13% [2] Bond Market Insights - The bond market sentiment improved, particularly in the long end, with 1-year and 3-year government bond yields decreasing by 0.5 basis points and 0.8 basis points, respectively [4] - The market is anticipating a potential decrease in the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) interest rate by 10 basis points to a range of 1.7%-2.0%, which is expected to boost bond market sentiment [4] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds was reported at 3.43 years, indicating a cautious approach among investors [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market's focus is on safety margins and incremental policies, with low valuation stocks performing well while high valuation stocks faced pressure [5][6] - The SW low P/E index rose by 0.45%, while the high P/E index fell by 0.35%, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards lower-risk assets [7] - The real estate and infrastructure sectors showed strength, with the SW real estate and construction materials indices increasing by 0.84% and 1.02%, respectively [8] Policy and Market Expectations - Policy expectations are driving market trends, particularly in the real estate and cross-border payment sectors, with the latter seeing a 2.79% increase in the Wind cross-border payment index [8] - The recent issuance of guidelines for free trade zones has also contributed to positive market sentiment, with related indices rising significantly [8] Hong Kong Market Activity - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increase by 0.69% and 0.22%, respectively, with a notable rebound in the metals sector [9] - Southbound capital inflow reached 212.69 billion HKD, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [9]