Zhejiang Dahua Technology (002236) 民生证券·2025-04-22 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [5][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 32.181 billion yuan for 2024, a slight decline of 0.12% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.906 billion yuan, down 60.53% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, revenue increased by 1.22% year-on-year to 6.256 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 16.45% [1][3]. - Emerging demand industries continue to grow rapidly, with the company's smart IoT products and solutions generating 25.775 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a decrease of 3.26% year-on-year. The government and enterprise sectors showed varying performance, with government business revenue declining by 6.37% and enterprise business revenue down by 4.15% [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.181 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected revenue growth of 9.9% in 2025, reaching 35.364 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 3.274 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 12.7% [4][8]. Business Segments - Government business revenue was 4.057 billion yuan in 2024, down 6.37%, primarily due to cautious local government investments. However, it showed positive growth in the second half of the year driven by government special bonds [1][2]. - Enterprise business revenue reached 8.71 billion yuan, down 4.15%, with strong performance in the industrial and energy sectors, while public sector budgets constrained growth [2][3]. - The SMB segment faced the most significant impact from macroeconomic demand weakness, prompting a strategic focus on local operations and essential service areas [2][3]. International and Innovative Business - The overseas market showed resilience, with revenue of 16.294 billion yuan, up 6.31% year-on-year, effectively offsetting domestic demand contraction. The innovative business segment generated 5.566 billion yuan, growing by 13.44% [2][3]. Research and Development - The company invested 4.213 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, representing 13.09% of revenue, with a focus on enhancing its "Five Full" capabilities. The upgraded "Starry Sky Model 2.0" is expected to improve operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 35.364 billion yuan in 2025, 38.939 billion yuan in 2026, and 43.172 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.274 billion yuan, 3.753 billion yuan, and 4.467 billion yuan respectively [4][8].