Milkground(600882) 华鑫证券·2025-04-23 01:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stronger-than-expected profit release and initial effects of its dual-brand strategy [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increased cheese business income and improved gross margins [5] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the cheese market, with expectations for further profitability improvements due to operational efficiencies and market expansion [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 1.233 billion and 82 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 6.3% and 114.9% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 31.49% and 6.68%, showing improvements of 2.8 and 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 120 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.7% [5] Business Segments - Revenue from cheese, trading, and liquid milk products in Q1 2025 was 1.030 billion, 101 million, and 95 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 23%, and 17%, respectively [6] - The cheese business continues to grow rapidly, supported by product innovations and a dual-brand strategy with Mengniu [6] Distribution Channels - In Q1 2025, revenue from distribution, direct sales, and trading channels was 959 million, 165 million, and 101 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 31%, 26%, and 23% [7] - The company has a stable network of 8,046 distributors, with a net increase of 249 distributors [7] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to see further improvements in profitability, with projected EPS of 0.42, 0.62, and 0.80 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 63, 42, and 33 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9]