JUNEYAOAIR(603885) 华泰证券·2025-04-23 01:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.90 [6][7]. Core Views - The company's FY24 results met expectations, with operating revenue of RMB 22.095 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 914 million, up 21.7% [1][4]. - Despite a significant drop in oil prices in Q4 2024, the company reported a net loss of RMB 357 million, which was a slight improvement of 6.7% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics, resource optimization, and increased utilization of wide-body aircraft, leading to an upward shift in profitability and ROE levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 22.095 billion, reflecting a 9.9% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 914 million, marking a 21.7% increase [1][5]. - The company’s operating costs rose to RMB 18.978 billion, a 10.5% increase, while gross profit increased by RMB 233 million (8.1%) to RMB 3.117 billion [3][5]. Capacity and Utilization - The company focused on increasing capacity on international routes in 2024, resulting in a 17.3% increase in supply and a 19.9% increase in demand, with an overall passenger load factor of 84.6%, up 1.8 percentage points [2][3]. - The average aircraft utilization increased by 1.2 hours to 11.5 hours, contributing to a decrease in unit costs [3][5]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 20% and 8% to RMB 1.533 billion and RMB 2.330 billion, respectively, due to anticipated delays in aircraft deliveries and ongoing weak revenue levels [4][24]. - The target price has been revised to RMB 16.90, based on a PB ratio of 3.7x for 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous estimate of 4x [4][6].