宝丰能源：内蒙项目放量，Q1净利同环比高增-20250423

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 21.76 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, driven by increased sales from the Inner Mongolia project and a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a significant rise in net profit [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage in the coal-to-olefins sector as it expands low-cost production capacity with the ongoing ramp-up of its Inner Mongolia project [1][4]. - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with anticipated improvements in profitability due to low coal prices and recovering domestic demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company achieved total revenue of 10.77 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.44 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [1][2]. - The sales volumes for PE, PP, and coke increased year-on-year by 74%, 84%, and decreased by 3% to 5.15 million tons, 4.92 million tons, and 1.699 million tons respectively [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The procurement prices for gasification raw coal, coking coal, and thermal coal decreased year-on-year by 18%, 28%, and 23% to 494 RMB, 838 RMB, and 348 RMB per ton respectively, which significantly improved the profit margins for polyethylene and polypropylene products [2]. - The company's overall gross margin increased year-on-year by 6.6 percentage points to 35.4%, while the period expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0% [2]. Future Projections - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 10 billion RMB, 11.66 billion RMB, and 12.93 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.8%, 16.6%, and 10.9% [4][10]. - The company plans to further enhance its competitive edge with new projects in Ningdong and Xinjiang, which are expected to lower costs due to advanced technology [3][4].