TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 华创证券·2025-04-23 06:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, driven by an integrated business layout and rising aluminum prices [1][7] - The target price is set at 9 CNY, with the current price at 7.45 CNY, indicating potential upside [3][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 28,089 million CNY, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4,455 million CNY, an increase of 102.03% year-on-year [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 7,294 million CNY, up 9.99% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,371 million CNY, up 141.43% year-on-year [7] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of approximately 1,050 million CNY, a growth of 46% year-on-year [7] Production and Pricing Insights - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 19,800 CNY/ton, up about 6% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 4,000 CNY/ton, up about 40% year-on-year [7] - The company achieved record production levels in electrolytic aluminum (1,175,900 tons), alumina (2,278,900 tons), and electricity generation (over 13.8 billion kWh) in 2024 [7] Strategic Developments - The company is making steady progress in its integrated projects, including the acquisition of mining rights in Indonesia and the commencement of production in Guinea [7] - The integration of upstream and downstream operations is expected to enhance cost advantages and operational efficiency [7] Future Profitability Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4,647 million CNY, 5,463 million CNY, and 6,267 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 17.6%, and 14.7% [7][8]