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恒玄科技(688608):低功耗计算 SoC 龙头,端侧新周期再出发

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 451.79 RMB based on a valuation of 75 times earnings for 2025, resulting in a market capitalization of 542.35 billion RMB [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, achieving 3.263 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%, and a net profit of 460 million RMB, up 271.7% [3][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in low-power computing SoC chips, with a strong focus on AIoT applications, particularly in smart wearables and smart home devices [16][24]. - The global market for headphones and smart wearables is experiencing steady growth, with the company gaining market share in these segments [4][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in low-power AIoT technology, focusing on smart audio and video SoC chips used in various low-power scenarios, including smart wearables and smart home devices [3][16]. - The company has established a diverse customer base, including major Android phone brands, professional audio manufacturers, internet companies, and home appliance manufacturers [3][24]. Investment Logic - The headphone and smartwatch markets are developing steadily, with the company increasing its market share. IDC forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in global headphone shipments for 2024 [4][60]. - The company has introduced advanced 12nm and 6nm wearable control chips, positioning itself at the forefront of innovation in the smart wearable sector [4][16]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.60 billion RMB, 7.23 billion RMB, and 10.06 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.84 RMB, 6.02 RMB, and 8.38 RMB [6][10]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit growth rate of 272.35% anticipated for 2024 [10][34]. Market Trends - The global headphone market is recovering, with a projected shipment of 340 million units in 2024, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [47][60]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging AI glasses market, which is expected to become a significant growth driver [5][60].