JUNEYAOAIR(SH:603885) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-24 03:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][25]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 914 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, indicating continuous improvement in performance and a commitment to active dividend distribution and share buybacks [1][6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 15.5 yuan, with the current price at 12.65 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 22% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 22,095 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [2][6]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,709 million yuan, reflecting an 87.0% increase compared to 2024 [2][6]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is expected to rise from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 1.23 yuan by 2027 [2][6]. - Valuation Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 31 in 2024 to 10 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][6]. Operational Metrics - Capacity and Load Factors: - The Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) for 2024 is projected to increase by 17.3% compared to 2023, while the Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) is expected to grow by 19.9% [6][7]. - The passenger load factor is anticipated to be 84.6% in 2024, a slight increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - Cost Management: - Operating costs are expected to rise by 10.5% in 2024, with fuel costs specifically increasing by 8.6% [6][7]. - The company is focusing on cost control, with a projected decrease in unit costs per seat kilometer [6][7]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 220 million yuan, which represents 78.13% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][7].