JZEG(SZ:000937) Minsheng Securities·2025-04-24 06:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 18.731 billion yuan, down 23.01% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.208 billion yuan, down 75.56% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company plans to acquire a 20.02% stake in Shandong Shouyang Duanwang Coal Industry Group for 899 million yuan, which is expected to enhance investment returns [1][3]. - The company has proposed a high cash dividend of 234%, with a total cash dividend distribution of 2.827 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 13.82% based on the closing price on April 23, 2025 [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit of -0.06 billion yuan, a significant drop from 1.028 billion yuan in the same period last year, and a decrease from 0.213 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [1]. - The coal production for 2024 was 26.9289 million tons, a decrease of 1.76% year-on-year, while coal sales fell by 6.85% to 24.2543 million tons [2]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 19.4% to 580.78 yuan per ton, with the cost per ton dropping by 16.73% to 362.69 yuan [2]. Business Segments - The non-coal business also faced challenges, with a decline in gross margins across various products, including coke, caustic soda, PVC, and fiberglass [3]. - The acquisition of Duanwang Coal is projected to add value, with the company holding coal reserves of 493 million tons and a net profit of 498 million yuan in 2024, translating to a PE ratio of approximately 9 times for the acquired stake [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 0.396 billion yuan, 0.533 billion yuan, and 0.617 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.11 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.17 yuan [4][5]. - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 52, 38, and 33 times, respectively, indicating a potential recovery in earnings [4][5].