HLGF(SH:600346) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-24 07:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is maintained as "Buy" [1][9]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's performance, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by cost reductions and a recovery in product prices [6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the refining sector, benefiting from cost advantages and operational flexibility, which supports the optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [5]. - The non-recurring net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.239 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 112.75% [6]. - Sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials in Q1 2025 were 5.4309 million tons, 4.1067 million tons, and 1.3354 million tons, respectively [6]. - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5,181.99 yuan/ton, 4,391.90 yuan/ton, and 6,963.22 yuan/ton, reflecting a positive trend [6]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for Hengli Petrochemical for 2025-2027 are as follows: net profit of 9.142 billion yuan in 2025, 11.395 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.324 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.30 yuan, 1.62 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [5][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.0 for 2025, 9.6 for 2026, and 8.9 for 2027 [5][8]. Industry Outlook - The refining sector is expected to see continued improvement in market conditions, with a notable increase in refining margins since Q4 2024 [7]. - The recent increase in fuel oil import tariffs is anticipated to reduce the operational capacity of less efficient refineries, benefiting the overall quality development of the refining industry [7].