中国中免（601888）：口岸免税受益政策优化，期待市内免税增量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from optimized duty-free policies at ports and anticipates growth in city duty-free sales [1][4] - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 56.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, with a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online, store, and supply chain capabilities, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit to 4.27 billion yuan [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, down 19.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 28.54%, attributed to declining sales and increased promotional efforts [2] Market Dynamics - The company has seen a steady increase in its share of the duty-free market in Hainan, with a 2 percentage point increase in 2024 [3] - The company successfully won bids for duty-free operations at 10 airports, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free policies and increased international flight volumes [3] - The city duty-free stores are expected to contribute to growth, with new store openings planned in major cities [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 58.03 billion yuan, 63.55 billion yuan, and 68.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 4.50 billion yuan, 4.93 billion yuan, and 5.28 billion yuan [4][5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.18 yuan, 2.38 yuan, and 2.55 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]