HLGF(SH:600346) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-24 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its Q1 2025 performance, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit by 112.75% compared to Q4 2024, driven by cost reductions and a recovery in product prices [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable refining environment and the gradual exit of marginal refining capacities due to increased fuel oil import tariffs, which will support high-quality development in the refining industry [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 9.142 billion, 11.395 billion, and 12.324 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.62, and 1.75 yuan [5][8] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 10.6% in 2025 to 10.8% in 2026 and 2027, while net margin is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 2027 [8][11] Sales and Pricing - In Q1 2025, the sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5.4309 million, 4.1067 million, and 1.3354 million tons respectively, with varying changes in sales prices across segments [6] - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials in Q1 2025 were 5,181.99, 4,391.90, and 6,963.22 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [6] Cost and Debt Management - The company’s average prices for key raw materials such as coal, butanediol, crude oil, and PX in Q1 2025 were 603.72, 7,018.05, 4,056.30, and 6,219.78 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in coal and crude oil prices [6] - As of Q1 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 76.55%, with expectations for continued optimization in the future [6][7]