温氏股份（300498）：肉猪成本售价双优，Q1盈利超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 21.42 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of RMB 9.2 billion, up 244% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 24.3 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 2 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][2][4]. - The strong Q1 performance was attributed to favorable pig prices during the off-season and a significant reduction in production costs. The company is expected to continue increasing output and reducing costs in 2025 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 8.59 million pigs, a 20% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of RMB 15.2 per kg and a production cost of approximately RMB 12.9 per kg, resulting in a profit of RMB 283 per pig, compared to the industry average of RMB 93 [2][3]. - The company aims to sell between 33 to 35 million pigs in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% to 16%, and plans to increase chicken sales by over 5% [3][4]. Cost Management - The company's total debt ratio has been decreasing quarterly, reaching 51% by Q1 2025. The company has also prioritized shareholder returns, with a total cash dividend of RMB 2.32 billion and share buybacks of RMB 660 million in 2024, accounting for 32% of the net profit [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upwards by 17% and 29%, respectively. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 9.4 billion, RMB 9.4 billion, and RMB 19.4 billion, respectively [4][6].