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新东方-S(09901):新东方-s(09901):预期筑底,看好全年盈利弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a bottoming out of its performance, with a positive outlook on profit elasticity for the full year [1]. - The core K12 business shows steady revenue growth, and operational profit margins are anticipated to improve post-autumn 2025 due to cost reduction measures [1][3]. - The non-selective business is projected to have revenue growth guidance of 10-13% year-on-year for Q4 FY25, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 FY25, total revenue was 1.183billion,ayearonyeardecreaseof21.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while revenue excluding selective business was 1.038 billion, reflecting a 21.2% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 was 142million,withaprofitmarginof13.3142 million, with a profit margin of 13.3%, slightly better than previous forecasts [1][2]. - The company expects non-GAAP operating profit margin to improve by approximately 1 percentage point in Q4 FY25 due to a low base effect [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for non-selective business are adjusted to 4.424 billion, 4.819billion,and4.819 billion, and 5.538 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to 457million,457 million, 550 million, and 654millionforFY25,FY26,andFY27respectively[4][10].Thecompanyanticipatesasteadyincreaseinrevenueandprofitmargins,withafocusonenhancingmanagementefficiencyandoptimizingexpansionpace[3][4].ValuationAnalysisThetargetpriceissetat654 million for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins, with a focus on enhancing management efficiency and optimizing expansion pace [3][4]. Valuation Analysis - The target price is set at 67.25 based on a 20x PE ratio for FY26E, reflecting the company's leading position in the education sector [4][13]. - The report highlights that the current demand for non-academic training remains strong, supporting the company's long-term growth potential [4][10].