Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 华安证券·2025-04-25 06:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 62.18 billion, 73.06 billion, and 82.14 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [10]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 144.11 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.89%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.74 billion, down 12.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The average price of alumina in Q1 2025 was 3863.5 yuan/ton, up 15.44% year-on-year but down 27.35% quarter-on-quarter. The decline in alumina prices is expected to support profit recovery for the company [8]. - The average capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan reached 99% in Q1 2025, compared to approximately 81% in the same period last year, contributing to increased sales volume. The domestic aluminum spot price was 20455 yuan/ton, up 7.22% year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the company reported a revenue of 544.50 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4412 million, with a net profit growth of 11.5% [12]. - The projected revenue for 2025E is 551.49 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The net profit is expected to rise to 6218 million, reflecting a significant growth of 40.9% [12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 13.2% in 2024A to 17.3% in 2025E, indicating enhanced profitability [12].