温氏股份：成本下降显著，24年业绩大增-20250425

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [8][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable increase in revenue and a return to profitability in 2024. The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.64%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][6]. - The company benefits from a dual business model in pig and chicken farming, which provides a buffer against industry downturns. The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.12 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 2.35 yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [8][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 16.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 112.3 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 88.3 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 6.654 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.12 [4][5]. - The largest shareholder is Wen Pengcheng, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the pig farming segment generated revenue of 64.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.71%. The company achieved a stable increase in pig output, with 30.18 million pigs sold in 2024, up 14.93% from the previous year [6]. - The chicken farming segment reported revenue of 35.72 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 2.58%. Despite lower prices, the segment remained profitable due to reduced costs [7]. - The company's financial health has improved, with a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 53.14% in 2024 to 51.45% in Q1 2025 [7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects a decline in revenue for 2025 to 102.41 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, with expected revenues of 110.49 billion yuan in 2026 and 133.81 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit is expected to decrease to 7.44 billion yuan in 2025 but rebound to 11.07 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.63 billion yuan in 2027 [10][11].