NHD(002946)2025-04-25 09:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20 yuan [4][8]. Core Views - The company has exceeded profit expectations, with significant improvement momentum still present. The focus on low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt has driven strong growth in these segments, despite challenges in the ambient milk market [8][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 10.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 538 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [2][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.42% year-on-year, with a net profit of 133 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 48.5% [2][4]. Financial Summary - 2024 Financial Indicators: - Total revenue: 10,665 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: -2.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 538 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 24.8% - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.62 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): 28 times [4][8]. - 2025 Financial Projections: - Total revenue: 10,987 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 3.0% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 675 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 25.6% - EPS: 0.78 yuan - PE: 22 times [4][8]. - 2026 and 2027 Projections: - 2026 total revenue: 11,605 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6% - 2027 total revenue: 12,281 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8% - Net profit for 2026: 794 million yuan, with a growth rate of 17.6% - Net profit for 2027: 910 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14.6% [4][8]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of April 24, 2025, is 17.24 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 148.38 billion yuan [4][8]. - The company has shown resilience in its core business, with a focus on improving revenue quality by reducing the scale of trade and other businesses [8][4].