海格通信（002465）：军工AI，成长凸显，价值重塑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [12]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a bottom reversal in its main business by 2025, with significant recovery compared to 2024. The focus on product upgrades in Beidou equipment and radio products is anticipated to drive growth. Additionally, deepening cooperation with China Mobile is expected to enhance the company's product offerings in the fields of Beidou and satellite internet, leading to an increase in the proportion of civilian products, which will become a key growth driver [3][10]. Summary by Sections Stock Price Review - The company, listed as the first "military industry overall IPO" in 2010, has seen its stock price fluctuate upwards, particularly after the release of Beidou II equipment and various acquisitions. However, from 2016 to 2022, the stock price was closely tied to military procurement demand due to a low proportion of civilian products. In 2023, the correlation with military demand decreased as market expectations for an increase in civilian product proportion rose. By 2025, the civilian business is expected to enter a performance release phase, marking a shift from a cyclical to a growth-oriented company [6][10]. Beidou & Satellite Internet - The integration of Beidou and low-orbit satellites is projected to become a primary means of satellite communication in the consumer market. The company has established a full industry chain layout in this area and formed strategic cooperation with China Mobile, which is expected to lead to complementary advantages in technology, market channels, and customer resources. The company is focusing on four major industrial parks to enhance its capabilities in basic components, terminals, and system software [7][40]. Military AI - The report highlights the importance of unmanned equipment in future warfare, emphasizing the company's strategic expansion into this area. The company is leveraging its strengths in communication, navigation, and perception algorithms to develop a comprehensive range of unmanned application platforms. The "Jiutian" drone, recently showcased, has garnered significant attention and potential orders from various enterprises [8][81]. Performance Recovery - The company is expected to face pressure in 2024, but demand is projected to recover in 2025. The Beidou business is anticipated to see high growth starting in 2023, with 2025 expected to be a peak year for growth. The civilian product direction is being constructed around satellite applications, with significant market share in the TianTong RF chip market, which is expected to penetrate mainstream domestic smartphone brands [9][84]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 600 million, 1.053 billion, and 1.302 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 1030%, 75%, and 24%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 44x, 25x, and 20x, leading to a strong recommendation to buy [10].