RSPC(002493) HTSC·2025-04-25 10:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.99 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 326.5 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 720 million RMB, a decrease of 37.4% year-on-year [1][5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 81.3 billion RMB, with a net loss of 150 million RMB, attributed to high oil prices affecting gross margins [1][2]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in the refining and polyester industry, with expected net profits of 3.11 billion RMB, 4.20 billion RMB, and 4.74 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s refining and chemical business revenue decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to 117.9 billion RMB, while the chemical segment remained flat at 121.8 billion RMB [2]. - The gross margin for the refining segment fell by 2.7 percentage points to 17.6%, while the chemical segment saw an increase of 3.4 percentage points to 13.6% [2]. - The company’s total inventory decreased by 17.2 billion RMB to 44.6 billion RMB [2]. Market Conditions - The average price differentials for refined products narrowed in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating a challenging market environment [3]. - The report notes that the polyester industry is still awaiting improvement in market conditions, with price and profit levels contracting since Q2 2025 [3]. Strategic Developments - The company has accelerated its differentiated layout in the industrial chain, with new production facilities for high-end materials coming online, including a 1,000-ton α-olefin pilot plant and a 150,000-ton multifunctional polyester chip project [4]. - The total construction in progress increased by 2.2 billion RMB year-on-year to 44 billion RMB, reflecting ongoing investments in new materials and high-performance resin projects [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.31 RMB, 0.41 RMB, and 0.47 RMB, respectively [5][27]. - The report adjusts the target price to 8.99 RMB based on a 29x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 10.80 RMB [5].