当升科技： 三元订单回暖，铁锂盈利有望修复-20250425

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 48.05 RMB [6][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.908 billion RMB in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.80% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 111 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.22% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 1365.53% [1]. - The company expects a recovery in overseas ternary orders in 2025, with a projected increase in ternary shipments by 40%-50% due to improved profitability from international clients and rising metal prices [3]. - The company is actively developing sodium battery technology and anticipates a significant increase in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) shipments, with production capacity expected to reach 80,000 tons by mid-2025, leading to a turnaround in profitability for LFP products [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the ternary cathode shipment volume was estimated at 10,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit per ton exceeding 10,000 RMB. The LFP shipment volume was estimated at 24,000 tons, experiencing a decline due to seasonal factors, with net profit per ton remaining stable [2]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 784.27 million RMB in 2025, with a projected growth in net profit for 2026 and 2027 [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on emerging technologies, including a 60%-70% increase in lithium acid output in the small digital market and initial shipments in the sodium battery market for electric two-wheelers in 2025 [5]. - The company is also advancing solid-state battery technology, which is currently in the pilot testing phase [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the company's net profit for 2025-2027 at 784.27 million RMB, 920.14 million RMB, and 1.018 billion RMB respectively, with a target PE ratio of 31 times for 2025 [6][8].