电投能源：电解铝贡献弹性，煤电托底，未来可期-20250425

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 29.859 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.342 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.15% [1] - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the increase in both volume and price of coal and electrolytic aluminum [1] - The company has established itself as a leading brown coal seller in Northeast China, with a planned coal production and sales volume of 48 million tons for 2025, maintaining the long-term contract price for coal in 2025 at the same level as in 2024 [3] - The electrolytic aluminum business is expected to contribute significant elasticity and growth potential, with a production and sales plan of 90,000 tons for 2025 [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company plans to generate 1,155,445 million kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, with a significant contribution from renewable energy sources [4] - The company’s coal production in 2024 is projected to be 48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with a sales volume of 47.76 million tons, up 2.8% year-on-year [11] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 is expected to be 222 yuan per ton, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, while the cost is projected to decrease by 8% to 90 yuan per ton [11] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.79 billion yuan, which represents 35.67% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.9 billion yuan, 6.1 billion yuan, and 6.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.1X, 6.9X, and 6.5X [10] - The construction of the second phase of the aluminum project is anticipated to enhance the green electricity proportion to 79%, contributing to the development of a circular economy in the region [8]