LuoLai Lifestyle Technology (002293) 光大证券·2025-04-26 10:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a bottoming out of performance in 2024, with a profit recovery in Q1 2025, while maintaining a high dividend strategy [11] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, down 24.4% year-on-year [5][11] - The company expects a sales improvement in the domestic home textile business due to better consumer demand and policy subsidies, alongside reduced losses from its U.S. subsidiary, Lexington [11] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 was 45.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.2%, and a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 24.4% [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 26.3% [6][11] Business Segment Analysis - The domestic home textile and U.S. furniture subsidiary revenues declined by 12% and 22% respectively in 2024 [7] - Revenue contributions from product categories in 2024 were 32% from bedding sets, 35% from comforters, 6% from pillows, 3% from summer products, and 18% from furniture [7] Margin and Cost Control - The gross margin for 2024 improved by 0.7 percentage points to 48.0%, primarily due to better margins in the domestic home textile business [9] - The company maintained a stable expense ratio of 34.7% in 2024, with a slight decrease in the expense ratio in Q1 2025 to 32.7% [10] Dividend Policy - The company proposed a cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a total payout ratio of 115% for the year [5][11] Financial Forecasts - The company expects a revenue of 5.175 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 13.5% [12] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 524 million yuan, with a growth rate of 21.2% [12] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.3% in 2024, improving to 12.5% by 2025 [15] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 14 for 2025 [12][15]