中国有色矿业（01258）：2024年年报、2025年一季报点评：历史最佳年度归母净利，期待自产铜持续增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (1258.HK) [5][7] Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit attributable to shareholders of $399 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, primarily driven by rising copper prices [3][4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in net profit, reaching $123 million, which is a 46% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, exceeding market expectations [3][4] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the recovery in copper production and price increases, with projected net profits of $412 million, $448 million, and $524 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of $3.817 billion, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $399 million [3][8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of $85 million, a 273.9% increase year-on-year, but a decrease of 11.1% quarter-on-quarter [3] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of $123 million, marking a 46% increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [4] Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, the company produced 109,700 tons of crude copper, 35,000 tons of anode copper, 271,400 tons of sulfuric acid, with stable production levels for crude copper and anode copper [4][6] - The sales volume for 2024 included 287,000 tons of crude copper and anode copper, 131,000 tons of cathode copper, and 818,000 tons of sulfuric acid, with a notable decrease in cobalt production [4][6] Pricing and Costs - The average selling prices for crude copper and anode copper in 2024 were $8,551 and $8,235 per ton, reflecting increases of 9.7% and 7.7% year-on-year respectively [4][6] - The unit costs for crude copper and anode copper were $7,126 and $4,405 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a decrease of 2.4% for cathode copper [4][6] Growth Potential - The company has significant growth potential through internal projects and acquisitions, with plans to expand production at various mining sites over the next 3-5 years [7] - The company offers a high dividend yield of 6.7%, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of 40% [7]