XUSHENG(603305) 民生证券·2025-04-27 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for growth relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.409 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 416 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, a decline of 8.12% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance but anticipates growth from new projects [2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 1.135 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.86% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.85% [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 17.55%, down 3.31 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 20.80%, reflecting a recovery trend [2][3]. - The company has a significant customer base, including Tesla, which delivered 336,700 vehicles globally in Q1 2025, a decrease of 12.96% year-on-year [2]. Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company has secured approximately 1.9 billion yuan in orders from major North American electric vehicle manufacturers and is progressing with its overseas capacity expansion, including a base in Mexico expected to commence production in 2025 [3]. - The company is advancing its magnesium alloy technology and has initiated collaborations in the humanoid robot sector, focusing on joint shell and torso structure components [3]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.472 billion yuan, 6.721 billion yuan, and 8.213 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 527 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 809 million yuan [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.55 yuan in 2025, 0.68 yuan in 2026, and 0.85 yuan in 2027, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 19, and 15, respectively [4][5].