Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved impressive performance in 2024 with a revenue growth of 32.2% year-on-year, reaching 1.31 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 30.2%, amounting to 160 million yuan. However, the first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 36.3% year-on-year, but net profit declined by 30.6% due to increased costs associated with domestic business expansion and changes in product structure [5][9] - The company primarily focuses on overseas sales, with 85.8% of revenue coming from international markets in 2024, which grew by 27.2% year-on-year. Domestic revenue, however, saw a significant increase of 73.4% [6][9] - The report highlights a concern regarding the external trade environment, particularly the impact of tariffs on the company's operations, as most orders are currently under the FOB model [9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 22.9%, with specific product margins for pet snacks at 16.4%, pet leashes at 35.6%, and other pet products at 11.7% [7] - The company experienced a significant increase in inventory, which rose by 62.4% year-on-year to 290 million yuan by the end of 2024, and accounts receivable increased by 56.0% to 270 million yuan [8] - The operating cash flow turned negative in 2024, amounting to -1 million yuan, primarily due to increased cash payments for goods and services, but improved to 25.96 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025 to be 168 million yuan, with a slight growth of 2.17% year-on-year, and further growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 225 million yuan by 2027 [10][11] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.88 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 17, which is expected to decrease to 13 by 2027 [10][11] - The report includes a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a projected revenue of 2.03 billion yuan by 2027 [10][11]
源飞宠物（001222）：2024年年报及2025年一季报点评：24年业绩亮眼、25Q1利润承压，关注外部贸易环境影响