YTCO(SH:600066) Minsheng Securities·2025-04-27 11:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 6.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 755 million yuan, an increase of 14.91% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a positive outlook for the full year 2025, with a revenue target of 42.133 billion yuan and a cost plan of 37.203 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in operational management [2]. - The company is a leader in the bus export market, with an 18.39% market share, and has accelerated its overseas expansion, having sold over 7,000 new energy buses in more than 40 countries [3]. - Domestic demand for buses is expected to rise due to the implementation of a vehicle replacement policy, which provides subsidies for new energy city buses [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 6.418 billion yuan, down 3.00% year-on-year and down 51.17% quarter-on-quarter. The company sold 9,011 buses in Q1 2025, an increase of 16.56% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 18.89%, with a net profit margin of 12.04%, showing slight declines in profitability due to receivables impairment reversals [2]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.252 billion yuan, 48.550 billion yuan, and 55.886 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.546 billion yuan, 5.299 billion yuan, and 5.984 billion yuan [5][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.05 yuan, 2.39 yuan, and 2.70 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 12, and 10 [4][10]. Dividend Policy - The company has a tradition of maintaining dividends, with a proposed dividend of 1.0 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan, which implies a dividend yield of 5.44% based on the current stock price [4].