河钢资源（000923）：铁矿业务量增价减，关注铜矿二期增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 55.82 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.66 billion yuan, down 37.95% year-on-year [7] - The iron ore business faced price declines due to a downturn in the steel industry, with an average selling price of approximately 417 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32.68% year-on-year [7] - The copper segment turned profitable, with a sales volume of 24.8 thousand tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%, and a gross margin of 18.47% [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, lowering the expected net profit to 7.5 billion yuan and 9.59 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 61.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.2% [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 750 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [5] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 61.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.3% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be 11, 9, and 7 respectively [7]