ZGXT(SZ:000831) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-28 02:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.027 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.09%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -287 million RMB, indicating a loss [2] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.075 billion RMB, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.65% and a year-on-year increase of 21.83%, while the net profit was -84 million RMB [2] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 728 million RMB, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.28% but a year-on-year increase of 141.32%, with a net profit of 73 million RMB, indicating a turnaround [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 3.027 billion RMB, down from 3.988 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected recovery to 4.585 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 51.45% [10] - The net profit is expected to improve from -287 million RMB in 2024 to 386 million RMB in 2025, with an EPS forecast of 0.363 RMB for 2025 [10] Market Dynamics - The prices of key products such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide increased in Q1 2025, contributing to a significant rise in sales volume, which increased by 107.27% year-on-year in 2024 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from rising rare earth prices due to export controls and a tightening supply of overseas mines, alongside increasing demand from sectors like humanoid robots and low-altitude economy [4] Cost Management and R&D - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with a 31.91% decrease in period expenses in Q1 2025, while R&D expenses increased by 27.27% year-on-year [3] - The asset-liability ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 7.64%, indicating ongoing optimization of the capital structure [3] Future Outlook - The completion of the 5000t/a rare earth separation processing project is expected to significantly enhance the company's operational performance in 2025 [4] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.585 billion RMB, 5.929 billion RMB, and 7.387 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 386 million RMB, 476 million RMB, and 648 million RMB [5]