GREE(SZ:000651) Huaan Securities·2025-04-28 03:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gree Electric Appliances is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The performance in Q1 2025 exceeded market expectations [3] - Revenue analysis indicates that national subsidies support domestic sales of household air conditioners [4] - Profit analysis shows continued efficiency improvements in channel operations [5] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q1 2025, Gree reported revenue of 41.507 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.904 billion yuan, up 26.29% year-on-year [8] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 42.441 billion yuan, down 13.34% year-on-year, while net profit was 10.224 billion yuan, an increase of 14.55% year-on-year [8] - For the full year 2024, total revenue was 189.164 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 32.185 billion yuan, up 10.91% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 27.4%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 14.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year due to cost optimization [8] Future Earnings Forecast - Based on the latest performance, earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 206.04 billion yuan, 214.62 billion yuan, and 221.68 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 8.4%, 4.2%, and 3.3% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 37.073 billion yuan, 39.988 billion yuan, and 41.490 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 15.2%, 7.9%, and 3.8% respectively [8] - Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 6.8, 6.3, and 6.1 for the years 2025-2027 [8]