南极电商（002127）：业务转型利润承压，业绩拐点有望到来

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total operating revenue of 3.36 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.75% [2] - The total profit for 2024 was -254 million yuan, a decrease of 294.64% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -237 million yuan, down 312.04% [2] - The company has introduced new self-operated sales formats, leading to significant revenue growth, but incurred losses due to goodwill impairment and increased transformation costs [3][4] - The company is optimizing its supply chain and exploring offline channels, with positive feedback from its first brand pop-up store [5] - The company expects revenue growth to continue in 2025, with a projected operating revenue of 4.04 billion yuan and a net profit of 303 million yuan [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 3.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.7% [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was -237 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 312% [9] - The company forecasts operating revenues of 4.04 billion yuan in 2025, 4.83 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.77 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 303 million yuan, 621 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan respectively [9] Business Strategy - The company has implemented a full-chain control from raw material procurement to product sales, which has driven rapid growth in merchandise sales [3] - Marketing expenses increased significantly due to collaborations and promotional activities, leading to a sales expense rate of 17.5% in 2024 [4] - The company is focusing on quality control in its supply chain and has established partnerships with high-quality suppliers [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that strategic investments will pressure short-term profits but expects gradual improvement in profitability as business scales and cost controls are optimized [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.12 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 37, 18, and 11 [7]