LZLJ(SZ:000568) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-28 03:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a minimum payout ratio of 65% for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [7][8]. Financial Summary - 2024 Financial Performance: Total revenue was 31,196 million CNY with a growth rate of 3.2%. Net profit was 13,473 million CNY, growing at 1.7% [3][8]. - 2025 Financial Projections: Expected revenue of 31,932 million CNY with a growth rate of 2.4%. Projected net profit is 13,758 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.1% [3][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS for 2024 is 9.15 CNY, projected to increase to 9.35 CNY in 2025 and 10.01 CNY in 2026 [3][8]. - Valuation Ratios: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 14 for 2024, decreasing to 12 by 2027. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.9 to 2.9 over the same period [3][8]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining revenue and profit growth despite industry pressures, with a focus on inventory management and digital transformation to enhance pricing and market order [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in cash flow due to bill discounting, with contract liabilities at a high level of 3.07 billion CNY at the end of Q1 2025 [7][8].