YUNDA Corp.(SZ:002120) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-28 04:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yunda Holdings (韵达股份) [1][7][24] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 48.54 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and a net profit of 1.914 billion, up 17.8% year-on-year [1][3] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.19 billion, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 22.1% to 320 million [1][3] - The report highlights the company's leading growth in business volume, with a total of 23.783 billion parcels delivered in 2024, a 26.1% increase year-on-year [2][9] Financial Performance - 2024 Financial Data: - Revenue: 48.54 billion, up 7.9% - Net Profit: 1.914 billion, up 17.8% - Non-recurring Net Profit: 1.643 billion, up 18.3% - Non-recurring Net Profit Margin: 3.4% [1][3][8] - 2025 Q1 Financial Data: - Revenue: 12.19 billion, up 9.3% - Net Profit: 320 million, down 22.1% - Non-recurring Net Profit: 310 million, down 19.9% - Non-recurring Net Profit Margin: 2.5% [1][3][8] Business Volume and Market Share - The company completed a total parcel volume of 23.783 billion in 2024, with a market share of 13.58% [2][9] - In Q1 2025, the completed parcel volume was 6.076 billion, with a market share of 13.46% [2][9] Pricing and Profitability - The average revenue per parcel in 2024 was 2.01 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [2][9] - The average net profit per parcel in 2024 was 0.08 yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it was 0.053 yuan, down 36.6% [2][9] Future Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2026, estimating a net profit of 1.92 billion and 2.17 billion respectively, with EPS of 0.66 and 0.75 yuan [7][9] - The target price for the stock is set at 8.63 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 21% from the current price of 7.14 yuan [3][7]