Zhuzhou Kibing (SH:601636) Soochow Securities·2025-04-28 04:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 15,649 million yuan, down 0.21% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders, which was 382.59 million yuan, down 78.15% year-on-year [7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 34.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.4% to 4.70 million yuan [7] - The company is facing pressure on profitability in both float glass and photovoltaic glass segments, but there was an improvement in gross margin in Q1 2025 [7] - The financial expenses increased, leading to a slight rise in the expense ratio, while asset impairment provisions impacted profits [7] - Cash flow improved in Q1 2025, with a significant slowdown in capital expenditure [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a multi-industry layout and enhanced competitive advantages, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 603.91 million, 757.84 million, and 1,129.91 million yuan respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 15,649 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.21% [1] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 382.59 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 78.15% [1] - Q1 2025 revenue is 34.84 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, with net profit at 4.70 million yuan, up 6.4% [7] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for float glass and photovoltaic glass remains under pressure, but there was a recovery in gross margin in Q1 2025 to 12.0% [7] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 5.5% and 12.0%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decline [7] Cash Flow and Expenditure - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 9.12 billion yuan, down 6.31 billion yuan year-on-year, while Q1 2025 showed a positive cash flow of 0.17 billion yuan, an increase of 3.34 billion yuan year-on-year [7] - Capital expenditures significantly decreased in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, reflecting a slowdown in investment [7] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 603.91 million yuan for 2025, 757.84 million yuan for 2026, and 1,129.91 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.71, 19.69, and 13.20 [1][7]