By-health(SZ:300146) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-28 04:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price of 13.5 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company continues to face revenue pressure, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 32% in Q1 2025. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and a reduction in foot traffic in offline channels [6][7]. - The net profit margin decline has narrowed, indicating potential operational improvements as cost control measures take effect. The company is expected to gradually recover as sales increase and the base effects diminish [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - Total revenue is projected to be 6,838 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 7,172 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.9% [2]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 653 million CNY, with a significant increase to 866 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 32.7% [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is expected to rise from 0.38 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [2]. - Valuation Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28 in 2024 to 21 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings improve [2]. Operational Insights - Sales Channels: - Online sales have shown a slight recovery, while offline sales continue to struggle, with declines of 15.78% and 42.62% respectively in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - Cost Management: - The company has managed to reduce its sales expense ratio to 30.3%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in marketing expenditures [6][7]. - Product Performance: - The main brand and other product lines have experienced varying revenue impacts, with the domestic main brand seeing a decline of 36.37% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is implementing strategies to attract consumers back to offline channels through promotions and product sampling, while also focusing on maintaining profitability in online sales [6][7]. - The overall expectation is for gradual operational recovery starting from Q2 2025 as the company continues to execute its strategic adjustments [6][7].