LZLJ(SZ:000568) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-28 04:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a payout ratio of at least 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [1][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.2 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 2.4% in 2025, 6.7% in 2026, and 7.4% in 2027 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.8 billion CNY in 2025, with growth rates of 2.1% in 2025, 7.1% in 2026, and 8.7% in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 9.35 CNY in 2025, increasing to 10.01 CNY in 2026 and 10.89 CNY in 2027 [3]. Operational Insights - The company is experiencing a steady operational performance, with a focus on digital transformation to enhance pricing systems and inventory management [7]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 86.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to the impact of digital product introductions [7]. - The company aims to improve market penetration in various regions, particularly in Southwest and North China, while also enhancing its high-end product pricing strategy [7].