科沃斯（603486）：国补拉动销售效果明显，利润率持续修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth driven by national subsidies, with a notable profit margin recovery [1][2] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 165.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with a net profit of CNY 8.1 billion, up 31.7% year-on-year [1] - The company expects continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of CNY 13.86 billion, CNY 16.30 billion, and CNY 19.00 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 71.9%, 17.6%, and 16.6% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue from various segments includes CNY 80.8 billion from service robots, CNY 80.6 billion from smart home appliances, CNY 2.6 billion from OEM/ODM, and CNY 1.4 billion from other businesses, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 10.9%, -34.0%, and 43.4% [2] - Domestic and international revenues for 2024 were CNY 94.3 billion and CNY 71.1 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 5.0% and 9.1% respectively [2] - Online sales accounted for CNY 111.0 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year, while offline sales were CNY 54.4 billion, down 6.6% [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 improved by 1.94 percentage points to 46.5%, with service robots, smart home appliances, and other products having gross margins of 45.0%, 48.6%, and 13.4% respectively [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.9 percentage points to 4.9% [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin further increased by 2.5 percentage points to 49.7%, with a net profit margin of 12.3% [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9.8%, 9.3%, and 9.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is CNY 2.41, increasing to CNY 3.30 by 2027 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 38.0 in 2024 to 16.1 by 2027, indicating improved valuation [5]