老白干酒（600559）：24Q4阶段性降速去库，25Q1业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of reform dividends and the ongoing upgrade of product structure, leading to potential earnings elasticity [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, estimating net profits of 887.12 million and 1,027.34 million respectively, with growth rates of 12.71% and 15.81% [4] Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses are projected to be 5.36 billion, 787.10 million, and 887.12 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.91%, 18.19%, and 12.71% [5] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.27 billion, net profit of 231 million, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 220 million, showing year-on-year declines of 10.03%, 6.79%, and 3.79% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.17 billion, net profit of 152 million, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 142 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.36%, 11.91%, and 13.22% [1] Product Structure and Market Performance - The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan decreased by 17.66% in Q4 2024, while products priced below 100 yuan increased by 3.08% [2] - The company’s revenue from different regions in Q4 2024 showed a decline in Hebei and other provinces, while the Hunan market experienced a growth of 9.53% [3] Financial Metrics - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 improved by 5.86 and 1.00 percentage points to 68.58% and 13.05% respectively, attributed to product structure upgrades [4] - The company’s sales expense ratio increased by 4.59 percentage points to 27.51% in Q1 2025 [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 10.50 billion by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.67% [12]