LZLJ(SZ:000568) Huaan Securities·2025-04-28 06:48Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to steadily progress while awaiting recovery, with a focus on the stable development of its core product, Guojiao 1573, and deepening its market presence in Sichuan and North China [10] - The company has updated its profit forecast, expecting total revenue of 32.34 billion, 33.97 billion, and 36.61 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 3.7%, 5.0%, and 7.8% respectively [10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 13.81 billion, 14.79 billion, and 16.19 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth of 2.5%, 7.1%, and 9.5% respectively [10] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025: Revenue of 9.352 billion yuan (+1.8%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.593 billion yuan (+0.4%), and non-recurring net profit of 4.595 billion yuan (+0.9%) [9] - Q4 2024: Revenue of 6.893 billion yuan (-16.9%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.880 billion yuan (-29.9%) [9] - 2024: Revenue of 31.196 billion yuan (+3.2%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.473 billion yuan (+1.7%) [9] Revenue and Profitability Insights - Q1 2025 saw a decline in revenue and contract liabilities by 6.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down 7.3%, indicating challenges in channel collections [8] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 86.5%, primarily due to a shift in product structure [10] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 49.1%, significantly impacted by the decline in gross margin [10] Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend plan for 2024-2026, with cash dividend ratios of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75%, and a minimum of 8.5 billion yuan (before tax) each year, slightly exceeding market expectations [13]