BANK OF CHANGSHA(SH:601577) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-28 07:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform the Market" [6][11]. Core Views - The company shows stable growth in profitability, with revenue and net profit for 2024 increasing by 4.6% and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively. The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 22.49%, up by 2.2 percentage points, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.47% [1][3]. - The company continues to experience high growth in scale, with total loans increasing by 11.6% and 12.6% year-on-year for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively. The county-level financial advantages are highlighted, with county loans reaching CNY 201.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [1][2]. - The company has a stable non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17% at the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of approximately 310% [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 25.936 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%. Net profit is expected to reach CNY 7.827 billion, reflecting a 4.9% increase [5][9]. - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are both expected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year [1]. Loan and Deposit Growth - The total loan balance at the end of 2024 is expected to be CNY 5.292 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6%. The growth in corporate loans is particularly strong at 19.3% [1][2]. - County loans account for 36.9% of total loans, with nearly 6.8 million county customers served [2]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remains stable at 1.17% for 2024, with a slight increase in retail loan NPLs to 1.87% [3][9]. - The provision coverage ratio is stable at around 310%, indicating sufficient provisioning against potential loan losses [3][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the economic recovery driven by stable growth policies, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at CNY 8.106 billion, CNY 8.697 billion, and CNY 9.484 billion, respectively [3][9]. - The company’s valuation is considered attractive, with a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.51x for 2025 [3][9].