YUNDA Corp.(SZ:002120) HTSC·2025-04-28 07:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 9.69 [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 485.4 billion and a net profit of RMB 19.1 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% and 17.8% respectively. However, the net profit fell short of expectations due to a greater-than-expected decline in per-package pricing [1]. - The company is expected to optimize transportation resources and improve efficiency through automation and smart logistics, which will help reduce costs faster than revenue declines [1]. - The company maintained a strong growth in package volume, achieving a 26.1% year-on-year increase, while the average price per package decreased by 12.3% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 22.9% increase in package volume, but net profit decreased by 22.1% due to rising operating costs and intense market competition [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a significant reduction in per-package costs, down 14.4% to RMB 1.85, with core operating costs decreasing by 21.9%. The gross profit per package increased by 20.6% to RMB 0.17 [2]. - The company’s total expenses decreased by 13.9% to RMB 19.8 billion in 2024, indicating effective cost management [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down by 14% and 16% to RMB 21.9 billion and RMB 24.4 billion respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at RMB 26.0 billion. This adjustment is primarily due to increased industry competition [4]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 12.8x for 2025, with a target price adjusted to RMB 9.69 from RMB 12.18 [4]. Market Position - The company’s package volume growth outpaced the industry average, positioning it as a strong competitor within the logistics sector [2]. - The average price decline was more pronounced than the industry average, indicating competitive pricing pressures [2].