鱼跃医疗（002223）：1Q收入稳定增长，费用率影响利润

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 48.99 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance as the high base effect from the previous year diminishes, leading to better growth rates in the future [1]. - The revenue and profit figures for 2024 are projected to be RMB 75.66 billion and RMB 18.06 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.1% and 24.6% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 9.2% year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 5.3% [1]. Revenue Performance - The company's core segments showed varied performance in 2024: - Respiratory treatment solutions generated RMB 26.0 billion, down 22.4% year-on-year due to high base effects, while home respiratory devices and nebulizers saw positive growth [2]. - Blood glucose and POCT products achieved a revenue of RMB 10.3 billion, marking a significant increase of 40.2%, with CGM products more than doubling in revenue [2]. - Clinical instruments and rehabilitation revenue remained stable at RMB 20.9 billion, with some product categories experiencing growth while others faced declines due to high base effects [2]. Other Product Performance - Other product categories exhibited mixed results: - Home care products generated RMB 15.6 billion, slightly down by 0.4%, with electronic blood pressure monitors showing over 10% growth [3]. - Emergency products saw a robust growth of 34.1%, with the self-developed AED product M600 contributing to this increase [3]. Cost and Profitability - The sales expense ratio increased year-on-year, reflecting the company's ongoing investment in expanding its domestic and international market presence [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was reported at 50.14% and 50.30% respectively, showing a slight year-on-year improvement [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue expectations for respiratory and infection control products downward while increasing the expense ratio forecast. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 19.6 billion, RMB 22.7 billion, and RMB 26.2 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 8.8%, 15.5%, and 15.3% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period are RMB 1.96, RMB 2.26, and RMB 2.61 [5].