GREAT RIVER SMARTER(SZ:002930) Xinda Securities·2025-04-28 07:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a temporary operational pressure due to weakened downstream demand, with a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025 [3] - Despite the current challenges, the company has strong cash flow capabilities, which are expected to support debt structure optimization and reduce financial costs [3] - The company is projected to have a recovery in revenue and profit growth from 2025 onwards, with a maintained "Accumulate" rating [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.45 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.27%. For Q1 2025, revenue was 323 million, down 14.98% year-on-year [3] - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was 158 million, a decline of 46.57%. In Q1 2025, it was 21 million, down 65.10% year-on-year [3] - Cash Flow: The net operating cash flow for 2024 was 912 million, a decrease of 13.63%, while Q1 2025 saw an increase to 201 million, up 8.80% [3] - Dividends: The company distributed a total cash dividend of 137 million in 2024, with a high payout ratio of 87%, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.1% based on the closing price on April 25, 2025 [3] Business Segment Performance - Storage Services: The comprehensive storage service revenue in 2024 was 1.35 billion, down 7.13%, with a gross profit of 664 million, down 19.74% [3] - Terminal Tank Business: By the end of 2024, the terminal tank capacity was 5.19 million cubic meters, with revenue of 1.27 billion, a decrease of 7.46%, and a gross profit of 622 million, down 21.09% [3] - Chemical Warehouse Business: The chemical warehouse capacity increased by 77.66% to 115,300 square meters, with revenue of 82 million, down 1.79%, and a gross profit of 42 million, up 7.28% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.35 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.70 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.64%, 12.02%, and 11.90% [3] - The projected net profit for the same years is 165 million, 231 million, and 298 million, with growth rates of 3.92%, 40.49%, and 28.94% respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.36, 0.51, and 0.65 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26.94, 19.18, and 14.87 [3]