GREAT RIVER SMARTER(SZ:002930) Xinda Securities·2025-04-28 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a temporary operational pressure due to weakened downstream demand, with a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025 [3] - Despite the current challenges, the company has strong cash flow capabilities, which are expected to support debt structure optimization and reduce financial costs [3] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.45 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.27%, and a net profit of 158 million, down 46.57% [3][4] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 323 million, reflecting a 14.98% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 21 million, down 65.10% [3] - The company's cash flow from operations in 2024 was 912 million, a decrease of 13.63%, but showed an increase of 8.80% in Q1 2025 [3] - The company’s revenue from storage services was 1.347 billion in 2024, down 7.13%, while gross profit from this segment fell by 19.74% [3] - The terminal tank business generated revenue of 1.265 billion in 2024, down 7.46%, with a gross profit decline of 21.09% [3] - The chemical warehouse business saw a revenue of 82 million in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.79%, but gross profit increased by 7.28% [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.354 billion, 1.517 billion, and 1.697 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.64%, 12.02%, and 11.90% [3][4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 165 million, 231 million, and 298 million, with growth rates of 3.92%, 40.49%, and 28.94% respectively [3][4] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.36, 0.51, and 0.65 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.94, 19.18, and 14.87 [3][4]