AECC AST(SH:600391) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-28 09:33Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Hangfa Technology [6]. Core Insights - Hangfa Technology has established itself as a core supplier in the aerospace engine sector over the past two decades, benefiting from both domestic and international demand [1][14]. - The company has shown a stable growth trajectory in revenue and profit, with a projected significant increase in net profit for 2024 [2][4]. - The demand for aerospace engines is expected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market projected to capture 21% of the global market share from 2023 to 2042 [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hangfa Technology was founded in 1999 and has developed into a key player in the aerospace engine components market, with a successful IPO in 2001 [1][14]. - The company has undergone significant transformations, including a stock reform in 2006 and a capital increase in 2011 to enhance its manufacturing capabilities [1][14]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 2.36 billion to 4.52 billion, with a CAGR of 13.8% [2][21]. - In 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 14.8% to 3.85 billion due to lower-than-expected demand in domestic aviation parts [2][21]. - The net profit is projected to increase by 43% in 2024, reflecting effective management strategies [2][4]. Market Demand - The commercial aerospace engine market is anticipated to see a total demand of approximately $649.7 billion in China from 2023 to 2042, with significant growth in domestic aircraft production [3][46]. - The demand for small to medium thrust turbofan engines is expected to rise due to advancements in drone technology and new military aircraft [3][46]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.48 billion, 5.45 billion, and 6.85 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.12 billion, indicating a growth rate of 63.33% compared to 2024 [5][4]. Valuation - The report estimates a target price of 33.96 per share based on a 2.5x PS ratio for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 11.21 billion [4][6].