Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, showing resilient growth [7] - In 2024, total revenue reached 23.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [7] - The company maintained strong performance in its home province of Anhui, with significant growth in various product lines and regions [7] - Profitability continued to improve due to structural upgrades and cost optimization, with a net profit margin of 24.20% in 2024, up 0.87 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to sustain its growth momentum in 2025, with updated net profit forecasts of 6.20 billion yuan for 2025 and 7.00 billion yuan for 2026 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 26.25 billion yuan in 2025, 29.27 billion yuan in 2026, and 32.55 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 11.34%, 11.50%, and 11.20% [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.20 billion yuan in 2025, 7.01 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.83 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 12.35%, 13.14%, and 11.59% respectively [1][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 11.73 yuan in 2025, 13.27 yuan in 2026, and 14.81 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 14.25 for 2025, 12.59 for 2026, and 11.29 for 2027 [1][8]
古井贡酒(000596):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:业绩符合预期,延续韧性增长