LZLJ(SZ:000568) Ping An Securities·2025-04-28 10:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) [1][3] Core Views - The company aims for steady progress while providing cash dividends to shareholders, with a proposed cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for 2024, totaling 8.8 billion yuan in cash dividends, representing a payout ratio of 65% [3][7][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 6.9 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.9 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year [3][6][7] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.6 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [3][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 4.8% in 2025, reaching 32.7 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 4.5%, reaching 14.1 billion yuan. By 2026, revenue is expected to grow by 8.5% to 35.5 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 9.0% to 15.3 billion yuan [6][10] Margin and Efficiency Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 87.5%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 43.2% [7][10] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 28.4% in 2024 to 25.5% in 2025, reflecting changes in product mix and market conditions [10] Shareholder Returns and Future Strategy - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% for 2024-2026, with a minimum cash dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) each year [7][8] - The report highlights the ongoing digital transformation strategy and the potential for market expansion in regions like Sichuan and North China [8][10]