中复神鹰（688295）：价格下行，修炼内功

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 400 million yuan in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -45 million yuan, down 208% year-on-year, and the non-recurring net profit was approximately -58 million yuan, down 479% year-on-year [2][6]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to falling carbon fiber prices, with the average price for T700 carbon fiber around 93,000 yuan per ton in Q1, a decrease of approximately 27% year-on-year. Despite this, the company achieved significant sales volume growth [12]. - The gross margin for Q1 was approximately 3%, down 22 percentage points year-on-year but up 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to a reduction in manufacturing costs [12]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a reduction in employee count to 2,955 by the end of 2024, down 764 from the previous year [12]. - The demand for carbon fiber is expected to continue growing, with global demand projected to reach 156,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Domestic demand in China is expected to grow by 22% [12]. - The current low capacity utilization rate in the carbon fiber industry, around 60%, indicates that price rebounds may take time due to oversupply [12]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in demand in 2025, particularly in the offshore wind power sector, with expectations of over 40% growth in related domestic demand [12]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to increase from 1.557 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.539 billion yuan in 2026, with a gross profit margin expected to rise from 14% to 25% over the same period [18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to improve from -124 million yuan in 2024 to 516 million yuan in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [18]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to turn positive, with net cash flow projected to be 610 million yuan in 2025 [18].