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大元泵业(603757):家用板块重回增长,盈利能力短期承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The household segment has returned to growth, although profitability is under short-term pressure. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.57%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 260 million yuan, a decrease of 10.55% [1][3]. - New businesses and scenarios are experiencing rapid growth, with traditional business showing fluctuations. The agricultural pump business is expected to generate approximately 600 million yuan in revenue, a decline of about 3.8%, while the household segment's main products are projected to generate around 720 million yuan, down about 6.5% [2][4]. - The liquid cooling pump market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by the expansion of AI computing power and the need for efficient cooling solutions in data centers and electric vehicles [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 29.7%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 27.0%, a decrease of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 32.95 million yuan, which represents 45% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 268.37 million yuan, 325.16 million yuan, and 381.47 million yuan, respectively [5][6]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 14.81% for 2025, 14.50% for 2026, and 13.76% for 2027 [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic shielding pump market, with a comprehensive product matrix including household, industrial, and liquid cooling pumps. It is expected to leverage its technological advantages and market expansion capabilities [4][6]. - The company has a dividend payout plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute no less than 20% of the distributable profits in cash each year, contingent on meeting cash dividend conditions [1][5].