GWMOTOR(601633) 中泰证券·2025-04-28 12:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve record high revenue and profit in 2024, driven by a new product cycle, affordable intelligent driving features, and continuous expansion in exports [3][7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 40.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, down 45.6% year-on-year [6][8] - The company is entering a new product cycle with multiple new models set to launch, which is anticipated to boost sales momentum starting from March 2025 [8][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023A is 173.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26% year-on-year; for 2024A, it is projected at 202.20 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is 7.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 15%; for 2024A, it is expected to rise to 12.69 billion yuan, an increase of 81% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is 0.82 yuan, projected to increase to 1.48 yuan in 2024A [4] Sales and Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the company sold 257,000 vehicles, including 91,000 units sold overseas and 63,000 units of new energy vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [6][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, alongside maintaining stable sales in Russia [8][6] Product and Innovation Strategy - The company plans to launch several new models across its five major brands, including Haval, Wey, Tank, Ora, and pickup trucks, with significant models expected in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [8][6] - The introduction of affordable intelligent driving features in models priced below 200,000 yuan is expected to enhance competitiveness [8][6] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.4%, down 3.2 percentage points [6][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 14.5X, 12.6X, and 11.3X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][8]