Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-04-28 13:51Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Trades on long - term demand with a pessimistic outlook. There is still inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches, and the industry chain is expected to face over - supply pressure. The supply side remains at a low - level fluctuation, marginal production lines are in a loss state, and the cost of petroleum coke has slightly increased. However, there is still ignition expectation on the supply side, demand improvement is limited, production and sales are weak, and coal - gas cost has decreased [3]. -纯碱: The industry chain still has profits, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand and over - supply is difficult to reverse. Maintenance can only cause short - term disturbances. In May, there are more factory maintenance activities than in April, increasing supply disturbances. Rigid demand is stable, photovoltaic demand has improved, and exports continue to exceed expectations, alleviating domestic over - supply pressure. However, daily production is at a high level, new production capacity is being put into operation, and social inventory is at an absolute historical high [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Category Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.52% and a historical percentile of 77.1% in the past 3 years.纯碱 price is predicted to be in the range of 1200 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.66% and a historical percentile of 10.9% in the past 3 years [2]. Hedging Strategies - Glass Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1250 - 1300, and sell FG509C1400 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1050 - 1100, and sell FG509P1060 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 70 [2]. - 纯碱 Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1450 - 1500, and sell SA509C1500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1200 - 1250, and sell SA509P1200 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. Price and Basis Data - Glass: On April 28, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively, with daily increases of 0.37%, 0.09%, and 0.43%. The average price of沙河 glass delivery products was 1236.4, with a daily increase of 1.8 [4][5]. - 纯碱: On April 28, 2025, the prices of纯碱 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively, with daily decreases of 0.15%, 0.07%, and 0.51%. The heavy - alkali market prices in North China, South China, and other regions remained unchanged, and the light - alkali market prices also remained stable [6][7][8].